Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack - Vegas Insider
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Matchup: Michigan St at Illinois
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Illinois (+4.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
ILLINOIS Over Michigan St - Illinois snapped a 9 game series losing streak in their last meeting (‘06, 23-20 +26!, 390-259 yd edge) and after that game the teams fought when the Illini planted a flag in Spartan Stadium. Michigan St is 4-1 ATS in the series but 3-7 ATS after facing rival Michigan. The Spartans survived a 4Q swoon to beat their rivals B2B for the 1st time S/’65-67 thanks to an int in OT for a 26-20 win in which they outrushed the B10’s top running offense (193-28). Both Spartan QB’s played again LW with Cousins (200 ypg, 62%, 7-4 ratio) seeing the majority of the snaps until inj his ankle and Nichol (94, 52%, 5-2 ratio) directed the game winning drive. MSU is #88 in pass eff D all’g a league worst 244 ypg (63%) with a 12-3 ratio. IL only trailed Penn St 7-3 at the half before the Lions scored 21 straight and outrushed the Illini 337-131. B10’s least eff passer QB Williams became IL’s total off leader but struggled again and Zook indicated a change could be made. IL is #105 in pass eff D (234, 66%, 6-2 ratio). IL has been outscored 102-26 vs FBS tms TY with all 3 TD’s scored in the 4Q of blowouts but the Illini awake from their slumber to pull the stunner.
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Matchup: Boston College at Virginia Tech
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Virginia Tech (-13 -110)
Line Source: M Resort
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
VIRGINIA TECH Over Boston College - In their last visit here, BC upset #8 VT on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. LY BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 VT 28-23 in the reg ssn at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. BC is 6-2 as an AD and VT is 6-11-1 as a HF. VT QB Taylor is avg 174 ypg (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Williams is 8th in NCAA in rushing yds (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yds (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. VT does have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #37-66, def #18-35) but while BC has shown progress under Shinskie, however, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.
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Matchup: Vanderbilt at Army
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Army (+11 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
ARMY Over Vanderbilt - Last met in ‘91. Vandy is in an SEC sandwich but needs a win to have any shot at being bowl eligible. Vandy HC Bobby Johnson is very familiar with the option from his days at Furman. Army is 2-9 as a HD. Vandy held Miss, who had been avg 36 ppg, to just 23 despite being banged up on D. QB Smith is avg 140 ypg (47%) with a 2-4 ratio. Vandy, despite being banged up at RB, is avg 195 ypg rushing led by RB Norman with 336 (6.7). Army has lost 4 straight ATS and allowed a late FG to Tulane and missed a game winning 37 yd FG with :12 left. Army was held to a season low 222 yds despite QB Steelman having a career high 95 yds rush. Army is avg 231 ypg rush, led by RB Mealy who has 303 (8.4). Vandy has a big edge on def (#29-77) which should allow them to shut down Army’s upset hopes.
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Matchup: Auburn at Arkansas
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Arkansas (+3 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
ARKANSAS Over Auburn - Ark is just 2-4 SU vs Aub and hasn’t beaten AU at home S/‘01. Ark (+16’) trailed 20-10 late 3Q LY, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yd edge. Ark RB Smith rushed for 176 yds (5.0) in that gm. The visitor is 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. This is the 2nd straight tough road gm for Aub. Aub led Tenn 23-6 in the 4Q and UT scored a TD with no time left to make the gm seem closer than it was (26-22). Ark crushed TX A&M 47-19 LW winning a 3H LPS for us. Aub OC Malzahn was the OC at Ark in ‘06 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after ‘07. Ark (+7) upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa tm LY 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both tms have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.
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Matchup: Oregon at UCLA
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: UCLA (+6.5 -110)
Line Source: BETUS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
UCLA over Oregon - UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last week giving us and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 ypg, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 gms with inj. #2 QB and LY’s starter Craft (195 ypg, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. In a gm that featured as many punts as FD’s (22), the Bruins held the once high-powered Duck offense to just 148 ttl yds in the 16-0 victory at the Rose Bowl in ‘07. LY UCLA was +19’ on the road but only lost 31-24 as UO QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yds (UO did rush for 323 yds, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs WSU a week after their domination of Cal. The visitor is 12-5 ATS in this series and the Ducks are 6-2 SU but UCLA is 13-4 as a HF and 17-5 ATS at home vs conf opp’s. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yds at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos.
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Matchup: Bowling Green at Kent
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Kent (+4 -110)
Line Source: PEPPERMILL
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
KENT ST Over Bowling Green - BG is 7-1 SU in this series and has won 4 in a row in Dix Stadium. Kent St is 4-18 SU on HC and 2-4 ATS as a HD. BG is 4-1 as an AF but 0-1 TY as we won a 3H LPS on Marshall (+3) over BG. Kent St is off a 31-15 loss at Baylor as a 21 pt AD. RB Terry, who replaced Jarvis (med RS), had his 2nd straight 100 yd gm and leads with 212 (7.9). True Fr QB Keith is avg 147 ypg (60%) with a 4-3 ratio despite only 1 start. BG lost to Ohio as a 4th down pass was deflected in the EZ with 1:40 left. BG had 26-13 FD and 474-419 yd edges but allowed a PR TD. QB Sheehan had a career high 390 yds and is avg 291 ypg (64%) with a 7-2 ratio. RB Geter leads with 291 (4.5). BG has the off edge (#83-116) but KS has the def edge (#93-114) although BG has played a much tougher schedule (#22-105).
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Matchup: TCU at Air Force
Time: 7:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: TCU (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
Tcu Over AIR FORCE -The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yds below their ssn avg the last 3 years! LY AF was held to 161 yds with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10 (-19’) at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 pt 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. AF is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 ypg rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 ypg (1.8). LW TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year LW and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot TW. TCU is 6-2 ATS vs the Falcons and will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.
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Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Memphis
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas-El Paso (-2 -110)
Line Source: LEROYS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
Utep Over MEMPHIS - UTEP was favored in both previous meetings (‘05 and ‘06), but the Miners were upset in both, losing by 13 ppg. UTEP has a bye on deck and is off a huge 58-41 upset win over #12 Houston. The Miners pounded UH on the ground as RB Buckram ran for a career high 262 yds (8.2!) and he now has 560 rush yds (7.2) after rushing for just 348 yds all LY. QB Vittatoe continues to struggle and is avg just 183 ypg (53%) with a 3-5 ratio. Although the numbers may not show it, the D may actually be improved. UTEP has faced 3 potent offenses (KU, TX and Hou), but held Buf and NMSt to just 297 ypg. Mem is off to a 1-4 start and HC West is feeling some serious heat. The Tigers must convert better in the RZ as they have settled for 5 FG’s in 15 redzone att’s. They did get RB Steele back LW, but he only rushed for 22 yds (2.8) vs UCF. Neither team can afford a loss and we expect a tight contest with the team that makes fewer mistakes getting the win.
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Matchup: GA Tech at Florida St
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Florida St (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
FLORIDA ST over Georgia Tech - Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to GT for the 1st time S/’75 (12-0 prior). The last 6 have been decided by less than 6 ppg. GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). LY FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the 1st 15 mins for -18 yds and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2nd&gl from the 3 but fmbl’d into the EZ with :45 left losing 31-28 (+2’). This is GT’s 3rd road game in 4W. GT’s last trip here was ‘03 and they almost pulled a major upset losing 14-13 (+23’). Nesbitt is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yds (3.6). FSU is just 7-17 ATS as a HF with 2 outright losses TY. QB Ponder is avg 285 ypg (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3 (0-4 ATS as a fav). GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons.
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Matchup: Fresno St at Hawaii
Time: 11:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Fresno St (-9 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
Fresno St over HAWAII - UH has won 6 of the L/8 SU (3 in a row) and also 6 of 7 in Honolulu. FSU’s lone win during that stretch was a 27-13 (-13) victory here in ‘05. UH is 8-3 ATS in WAC HG’s and the visitor has covered the L/4 gms and is 3-1 SU. UH QB Alexander (358 ypg, 65%, 9-4 ratio) is OFY (knee) which is a huge blow meaning Moniz (73 ypg, 50%, 0-0 ratio) will need to step it up. He will have WR Salas who leads the NCAA with 150 rec ypg on 26 grabs (23.1). LW vs LT, UH was held without a TD for the 1st time S/’04 (62 gms). The road-weary Warriors spent 17 of 23 days away from home (3 consec AG’s) while Fresno is fresh off a bye and battled-tested having already played two BCS AG’s where they went nose-to-nose with Wisky (34-31 2OT, +7’) and Cincy (28-20, +7). FSU RB Mathews is 2nd in the NCAA in rushing with 592 yds (6.8, 5 TD’s) and despite having a stable of RB’s, HC Hill said he wants to give Mathews the ball as much as possible as he wants him to be the team’s “premiere back.” With Hawaii having our #111 rush D this game looks one-sided while on the other side of the ball Fresno’s D rates the edge vs Hawaii’s backup QB.
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Member Plays
Matchup: Ball State at Temple
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Temple (-13 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT
TEMPLE Over Ball St - First meeting. Ball St is 14-3 as an AD but is on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. LW Ball St led Toledo 23-14 and after falling behind took a 30-29 lead with :42 left but all’d a 51 yd TD pass with :27 left. BS was outgained 479-310. The Owls have covered 3 straight and have won 2 straight MAC gms. LW they outgained EM 365-280, holding EM to just 50 yds rush (1.7). BS QB Page is avg 149 ypg (52%) with a 5-6 ratio but threw for 234 yds (2-1 ratio) LW. RB Lewis, who led the MAC LY has just 209 yds (3.0). Temple QB Charlton is avg 185 ypg (51%) with a 4-4 ratio, while their top 2 RB’s are Pierce with 364 (6.3) and Griffin with 198 (4.3). While the offenses are close, Temple has a HUGE def edge (#53-108) and that should have the Owls starting 3-0 in MAC play. The Owls defense is clearly perceived as the MAC’s finest and by already holding Buffalo to 13 and E Mich to 12 points they will now overmatch the Cardinals with their depleted O-line.
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